CIA Director Petraeus Quits Over Affair

CIA Director David Petraeus has resigned over an extramarital affair - which officials say was uncovered by an FBI investigation.

According to his letter of resignation, General Petraeus asked President Barack Obama on Thursday to allow him to resign, and on Friday the president accepted.

He admitted he had shown "extremely poor judgement" in having an affair.

"Such behaviour is unacceptable, both as a husband and as the leader of an organisation such as ours," he wrote.

He had only been sworn in as director of the Central Intelligence Agency on September 6 last year.

Prior to that, he was a four-star general with 37 years' service in the US Army.

His last assignments in the army were as commander of Isaf, the International Security Assistance Force, and commander of US forces in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

The resignation took Washington's intelligence and political communities by surprise, coming as a sudden end to the public career of the best-known general in recent years.

Neither Gen Petraeus nor the CIA explained why he felt he had to step down over the affair, and whether his liaison presented a purely personal problem or raised security issues in his sensitive work as spy chief.

The affair came to light as the FBI was investigating whether a computer used by the general had been compromised, the New York Times and other US media reported, citing government officials.

General Petraeus with his wife Holly

In a statement released after the resignation was announced, President Obama hailed the "extraordinary service" of Gen Petraeus.

"David Petraeus has provided extraordinary service to the United States for decades," Mr Obama said.

"By any measure, he was one of the outstanding general officers of his generation."

The president said the CIA's Deputy Director Michael Morell would serve as acting director.

"I am completely confident that the CIA will continue to thrive and carry out its essential mission," Mr Obama said.

Gen Petraeus has been married for 37 years to Holly, whom he met when he was a cadet at the US Military Academy at West Point.

Although the president made no direct mention of Gen Petraeus' reason for resigning, he offered his thoughts and prayers to the general and his wife.

He said Mrs Petraeus has "done so much to help military families through her own work. I wish them the very best at this difficult time".

The CIA has come under fire in recent weeks in the wake of the September 11 attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, that killed US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans.

Critics have questioned how much the intelligence agency knew about the likelihood and nature of the attack.

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BBC Apology Over Child Sex Abuse Slur

The future of one of BBC's flagship news programmes is in doubt over a report that wrongly implicated former Conservative Party treasurer Lord McAlpine in a child abuse scandal.

Newsnight made a unreserved apology on air on Friday night after Steve Messham admitted the man who abused him as a teenager at a care home in North Wales was not Lord McAlpine.

The 70-year-old peer found himself at the centre of a storm of internet speculation after Mr Messham told the BBC2 programme he had been abused by a senior Conservative from the Thatcher era.

In a statement, the corporation said: "We broadcast Mr Messham's claim but did not identify the individual concerned. Mr Messham has tonight made a statement that makes clear he wrongly identified his abuser and has apologised.

"We also apologise unreservedly for having broadcast this report."

Earlier, solicitors for Lord McAlpine indicated they were preparing to sue for defamation, saying their client's reputation had been left in "tatters".

BBC director general George Entwistle moved quickly to try to limit the damage, appointing BBC Scotland director Ken MacQuarrie to produce a report into why basic errors were made.

BBC boss George Entwistle has ordered an urgent inquiry into the fiasco

There will also be a "pause" in all ongoing Newsnight investigations while the BBC is suspending all co-productions with the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, which worked on the North Wales investigation.

Nevertheless, the disclosures come as another blow for the corporation which is still reeling from the Jimmy Savile scandal - including a decision to drop a Newsnight investigation exposing the late DJ as a child abuser.

Friday night's edition of Newsnight, which went out under the supervision of a senior news executive, carried a full, on-air apology for the broadcast on November 2.

Tory MP Rob Wilson, who was a fierce critic of the BBC over the Savile affair, questioned whether Newsnight could survive the latest fiasco.

He said Mr MacQuarrie needed to examine whether the programme on the Bryn Estyn children's home scandal had been an "over-compensation" for what happened over Savile or a "diversionary tactic" to draw attention away from the BBC.

"I want to have the information and evidence in front of me and take a considered view of whether Newsnight should continue or not," he said.

The programme had included an interview with Mr Messham who described how he used to be taken from the children's home to a hotel near Wrexham to be abused by men, including one described as a former senior Conservative.

Lawyers say Lord McAlpine's reputation has been 'severely damaged'

On Friday, Lord McAlpine finally broke cover to issue a vehement public denial of the "wholly false and seriously defamatory" claims against him.

In his statement, Lord McAlpine said he had visited Wrexham "only once", and that that had been in the company of an agent from Conservative Central Office. They visited a relative of Lord McAlpine's and did not stay overnight, he said.

"I have never been to the children's home in Wrexham, nor have I ever visited any children's home, reform school or any other institution of a similar nature," Lord McAlpine said.

"I have never stayed in a hotel in or near Wrexham, I did not own a Rolls-Royce, have never had a 'Gold card' or 'Harrods card' and never wear aftershave, all of which have been alleged.

"I did not sexually abuse Mr Messham or any other residents of the children's home in Wrexham."

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New York Storm: Mayor Orders Fuel Rationing

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ordered fuel rationing based on vehicle registration plates after the city was hit by its second severe storm in just over a week.

It comes as heavy snow fell across much of the northeastern US - bringing yet more misery for hundreds of thousands of people still without power since Sandy hit on October 29.

Mr Bloomberg announced at a news conference that drivers will be allowed to buy petrol on alternating days based on whether their licence plate ends in odd or even numbers.

"This is not a step that we take lightly," he said.

"Only 25% of our gas stations we estimate are open. Frustrations are only growing and it now appears there will be shortages for possibly another couple weeks."

Long lines like this one on Staten Island have been common in New York

He did not say when the measure would end.

Officials hoped the move would cut enormous lines of increasingly desperate drivers at city petrol stations - a shortage that has created a black market where unscrupulous online sellers offer fuel at more than twice the industry rate.

New York City has been hard hit by fuel shortages since Sandy struck on October 29 due to power cuts and petrol that has been stranded at refineries.

A second coastal storm, known as a nor'easter, struck on Wednesday bringing snow, rain and high winds - further hampering efforts to get the city's infrastructure back online.

The rationing plan, which follows a rationing programme similar to one implemented in New Jersey last week, begins on Friday at 6am local time (11am UK time).

Long Island will also impose the rationing system, which will begin on Friday at 5am local time.

More than 110 people died across the US northeast during Sandy

The system will mean licence plates ending in a letter are eligible to buy fuel on odd-numbered days.

Emergency vehicles, buses, taxis and certain other vehicles are exempt from the rationing system.

More than 110 people died across the US northeast during Sandy, which began as a deadly Caribbean hurricane before driving into New Jersey on October 29.

In New York City, authorities reported that the local death toll reached 41 when an elderly man was found dead in his building.

NY Governor Andrew Cuomo estimated that Sandy and its aftermath had caused $50 billion in damage, with New York state bearing $33 billion of that.

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Syria: Assad 'Employing Cluster Bombs' In War

By Alex Crawford, Special Correspondent, in northern Syria

Sky News has found overwhelming evidence that the Syrian regime is using cluster bombs against its own people in contravention of international laws.

It comes despite repeated denials by Bashar al Assad's government, which has insisted the regime does not even possess the weapons.

The claims had already been made by rebel activists who are denounced by the Assad regime as terrorists and were then backed up by Human Rights Watch.

But until now the accusations could not be independently verified and have been repeatedly written off as lies and propaganda by the Syrian government.

This week, the UN political affairs chief told the Security Council that there was "credible evidence" that the regime had used cluster bombs.

But Sky cameraman Garwen McLuckie, producer Nick Ludlam, cameraman Jim Foster and myself travelled to northern Syria and discovered scores of unexploded Russian-made cluster bombs ourselves, providing overwhelming evidence that the regime is indeed using weapons. They are considered some of the most lethal in the world.

Holes showing evidence of cluster bombs in a field

The eyewitnesses we spoke to described the bombs raining down on them. Many still had unexploded bombs in their homes.

Two people died in the town of Tal Rafaat, near the Turkish border when the Government dropped cluster bombs from jets.

The bombs scattered bomb-lets over a wide area, landing in fields, on top of scores of homes and hitting cars driving down the road.

Shortly afterwards, according to residents, the jets also attacked Maarat Al Numan. Both towns have a strong rebel presence and many residents told us they believed they had been attacked because of their anti-government stand.

One resident of Tal Rafaat, who did not want to be named for fear of government reprisals, told us: "I am very scared. I have three children and they are all sick now and I believe it was because of the cluster bombs that they are sick.

"They have been terrified since we were attacked."

Damage from fighting in Aleppo

He showed us holes in his roof, in his garden wall and in his front room where the bombs had landed.

"Assad is a criminal," he said, "I am 42-years-old and I have never heard of this, in Chechnya or Palestine or anywhere in the world where a president attacks his own people like this. He wants to kill all of us."

Aamar Alommer, who also has three children - aged six, four and seven months - showed how the bombs had punctured his water tank and diesel storage before blowing a hole in his ceiling as his family were all at home having dinner.

"This is not just against international law," he said. "This is against humanity."

Foreign Secretary William Hague has condemned the discovery. He said: "This footage is further evidence of the brutality of the Assad regime.

"The apparent use of cluster munitions shows an appalling disregard for human life. It reinforces the urgent need for all members of the UN Security Council to unite and respond to the crisis, and for all countries to step up efforts to hold the regime to account."

Ongoing conflict in Syria

Many of the residents believe the attacks amount to a war crime and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) is hoarding the intact bombs in a secret location as evidence.

Two Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters accompanied us gathering up the unexploded cluster bombs which the residents repeatedly produced as we went from house to house.

Ahmed Ousow told us the aircraft turned up just after Friday prayers on October 12.

"There were lots of people around. The residents had all just attended prayers. there were no demonstrations at that time and then suddenly the jet started bombing," he said.

He spoke of finding two big bombs with multiple smaller bombs inside - and most inside did not detonate.

A few weeks earlier, in Bdama, also near the Turkish border, we discovered a landmine planted in the middle of a residential area and left behind by the retreating Syrian army.

The civil war in Syria is becoming more and more vicious - with video surfacing on the internet of the FSA fighters executing groups of captured Syrian soldiers. The United Nations said if it could be verified, the killings would also amount to a war crime.

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Bradley Wiggins In Hospital After Bike Crash

Tour de France cycling champion and Olympic gold medallist Bradley Wiggins is recovering in hospital after a crash.

Wiggins, 32, was thrown off his bike when he was in a collision with a white Vauxhall Astra Envoy outside a petrol station.

A police source said his injuries from the crash were thought to be very serious at first, but later it appeared he suffered a number of broken ribs and cuts and bruises.

The accident happened at about 6pm on Wednesday in Wrightington, Lancashire, which is near to his family home in Eccleston.

Father-of-two Wiggins is known to regularly embark on training rides around the area's rural roads.

Wiggins celebrates his time trial gold medal

The driver of the Astra, a local woman, was uninjured.

A Lancashire Police spokesman said last night: "Police were called to the scene of a road traffic accident at Crow Orchard Road in Wrightington at about 6pm.

"A cyclist has been involved in a collision with a white Vauxhall Astra car. The rider of the bike, a 32-year-old local man, was taken to hospital by ambulance with injuries not thought to be life-threatening. His family have been told."

Crash investigators visited the scene but the road did not need to be closed.

Garage attendant Yasmin Smith, who rushed to Wiggins's aid, told the Lancashire Evening Post: "By the time I got there he had moved to a safer place but was still on the ground and he was in a lot of pain.

Wiggins has become a household name after his summer successes

"He said he thought he had broken his ribs and while a lot of police cars arrived it was about 15 minutes before the ambulance got there, by which time he was blue."

In a statement on its website, Team Sky said: "We can confirm that on Wednesday evening Bradley Wiggins was involved in a road traffic accident whilst riding his bike near his home in Lancashire.

"He is being kept in hospital overnight for observation but the injuries he has sustained are not thought to be serious and he is expected to make a full and speedy recovery.

"We will announce more details in due course."

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Surgeon Faces Inquiry Over Breast Cancer Ops

A surgeon is to face a criminal inquiry over allegations about his treatment of more than 1,000 breast cancer patients.

More follows...

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Obama Wins: 'Pacific President' Looks East

Four more years for Barack Obama in the White House will see a US foreign policy which is increasingly focusing on China and the Asia-Pacific region.

The re-elected US leader has made it clear he likes to be seen as a 'Pacific President'. He talks often of a 'pivot towards Asia'. It gives you an idea of just how important he sees China and this part of the world.

After ending the war in Iraq and nailing the timeline of America's exit strategy from Afghanistan the president's eyes are focussed here in Asia for his second term.

That's because China is the rising power of the world and America knows that China wants to take over the title, if not of super-power of the world then certainly economic super-power, over the next 10 years.

President Obama has said he wants 60% of America's warships stationed in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. He wants to extend America's influence as China seeks to spread and cement its dominance in the region.

Teaching the Chinese how a democracy work

China took delivery of its first aircraft carrier a few weeks ago, sending shudders through American military circles about China's ambitions.

China is already the resident super-power in Asia. It practically built Cambodia and Burma's new infrastructures with its no-strings loans. It is busy wooing Thailand, offering it technology for a high-speed rail link.

That all stacks up to a head-on geo-strategic rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region between the US and China.

China's GDP, while having slowed, is still at a staggering 7.4%. Mitt Romney had said if he won the election he would declare China a 'currency manipulator'. He says China is stealing American jobs by keeping its currency artificially low, enabling it to deliver cheap exports. 

It is clear that the issue of trade between the US and China is a top priority for President Obama too, if he is to deliver on his pledge of rebuilding the US economy and delivering more jobs.

We watched the US election unfold on big screens at a Beijing hotel at an event hosted by the US Embassy. There was a mock-up polling booth - and people dishing out stickers which said 'I voted'.

It is more than an ironic twist that the event was held on the eve of China's once-a-decade power transition - the 18th Communist Party Congress.

During the Congress China unveils its leaders for the next 10 years - chosen by the minute inner circle of the Communist Party elite. 

China is the world's most populous nation - 1.3 billion people - amounting to a fifth of the world's population. Yet none of them have a say in who will lead them.

At the US Embassy event, invited Chinese guests could choose whether to stand next to life-size cut-outs of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney to have their pictures taken. It is the only choice these Chinese people get to make when it comes to political events in China this week.

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Obama Tells US: 'The Best Is Yet To Come'

Barack Obama has promised that the "best is yet to come" for the US after winning another four years at the White House.

After a bitter and costly election campaign, the Democrat easily overcame his Republican challenger Mitt Romney - taking seven of the nine key battleground states.

Mr Romney won in North Carolina but Mr Obama swept to victory in Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Virginia and Colorado.

With Florida the last swing state left to call, he has 303 electoral college votes to Mr Romney's 206 and is well over the crucial threshold of 270.

"Four more years": Barack Obama and his wife Michelle

The President was also ahead in the national vote, with the country-wide exit poll putting him on 50% - two points ahead of his Republican challenger.

This is despite his popularity plunging since he was swept into the White House on a wave of hope in 2008 and unemployment standing at 7.9%.

:: READ MORE - Live Election Updates

Jubilation grew through the night in Chicago as it became clear Mr Obama was going to be re-elected.

Once Mr Romney had conceded by phone, the President appeared on stage to rapturous cheers as Stevie Wonder's hit Signed, Sealed, Delivered played.

"In this election, you the American people reminded us that while our road has been hard, while our journey has been long, we have picked ourselves up, we have fought our way back," he said.

Mitt Romney walking out onto the stage in Boston

"We know in our hearts that for the United States of America the best is yet to come."

He declared that he was returning to the White House "more determined and more inspired than ever... about the future that lies ahead."

Before appearing in person, he had told his supporters via Twitter: "This happened because of you. Thank you", and: "We're all in this together. That's how we campaigned and that's who we are. Thank you".

In a third post, he said simply: "Four more years" and posted a picture of him hugging his wife Michelle.

Romney supporters absorbing the result

He also wrote an email, promising to "spend the rest of my presidency honouring your support, and doing what I can to finish what we started".

"Today is the clearest proof yet that, against the odds, ordinary Americans can overcome powerful interests," he said, adding: "There's a lot more work to do."

In Washington, thousands of well-wishers danced and waved flags outside the White House after the result became clear - chanting "four more years" and "USA, USA!".

Crowds whooped and cried out "Obama, Obama!" and gave high-fives to complete strangers as election fever swept across the city.

The Obamas and Bidens after their victory was called

The contest had been billed as one of the tightest races for the White House in decades but ultimately, Mr Obama won comfortably.

His victory appeared to be a vindication for a campaign team that had predicted a close but winnable election despite the pain of the deepest economic crisis since the 1930s Great Depression.

Romney campaign staff in Boston were shocked as Democrat victories piled up and Republican supporters looked increasingly devastated as they realised their dream was over.

The candidate, who was watching the result in the city, rang Mr Obama to concede once he lost Ohio and then briefly addressed the crowds.

"This is a time of great challenges for America and I pray that the President is successful in guiding our nation," he said.

The Republican thanked his running mate Paul Ryan and his family, calling wife Ann "the love of my life" and saying "she would have been a wonderful first lady".

The Empire State Building turns blue after Barack Obama's victory

He added: "Paul and I have left everything on the field. We have given everything to this campaign. I so wish that I had been able to fulfil your hopes to lead the country in a different direction but the nation chose another leader."

Mr Romney had earlier revealed he had written a 1,118 word victory speech and claimed he had not prepared anything in case he lost.

Until last month, the Republican was considered to have little chance of ousting Mr Obama after his campaign was damaged by a string of gaffes.

However, a lacklustre performance by the President in the first television debate turned the race on its head and Mr Romney surged back in the polls.

The incumbent was much stronger in the second and third debates but it was not enough to derail the Romney campaign.

Better than expected employment figures last week helped bolster the Democrat and then fate also played a hand when Hurricane Sandy roared in.

The superstorm forced Mr Romney into the shade as campaigning was suspended and Mr Obama returned to presidential duties but the pair were still neck-and-neck going into the final day.

Once the euphoria of another victory fades, the President will face a tough task enacting his second term agenda, after Republicans - who thwarted him repeatedly in his first term - retained control of the House of Representatives.

Democrats kept the Senate but fell short of the 60-vote super majority needed to pass major legislation over Republican blocking tactics.

Two Republican Senate candidates, Richard Mourdock in Indiana and Todd Akin in Missouri, both lost their seats after making controversial remarks about rape during the campaign.

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Derby House Fire: Man Charged With Murder

A 45-year-old man has been charged with the murder of six siblings who died as a result of a house fire in Derby in May.

Paul Mosley, of Derby, is accused of murdering Jade Philpott, 10, and her brothers John, nine, Jack, eight, Jesse, six, Jayden, five, and 13-year-old Duwayne, Derbyshire Police said.

He will appear before Derby Magistrates Court later.

Another man, 49, arrested earlier on Monday, has been released without charge.

The children died after the blaze engulfed their home in Victory Road in the Allenton area of the city on May 11.

Their parents, Mick Philpott, 55, and his 31-year-old wife Mairead, have also been charged with their murders.

They are next due in court for a plea and case management hearing at Nottingham Crown Court on Thursday.

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Obama: Key States May Swing It For President

By Greg Milam, US Correspondent

Barack Obama looks on course to secure a second term in the White House as the most expensive and negative campaign in history finally reaches election day.

Mr Obama looks to have the narrowest of leads over rival Mitt Romney in a number of critical swing states.

The Republican candidate has even added two election day campaign stops in Ohio and Pennsylvania, a break with election tradition.

Mr Obama wrapped up his campaign with a rally in Iowa, the state where his 2008 campaign sparked into life, and he called on Americans to give him a second chance.

"I came back to ask you to help us finish what we started because this is where our movement for change began, right here," he said.

Barack Obama's final rally in Iowa

"After all we've fought through together, we cannot give up on change now. We know what real change looks like."

The two candidates have criss-crossed a handful of swing states in recent days as they try to energise supporters and secure every last vote. Both have sounded weary and hoarse at times.

The result is that national opinion polls put Mr Obama on 48% and Mr Romney on 46%.

In swing states, Mr Obama maintained a four-percentage point lead in Ohio and was ahead by slimmer margins in Virginia and Colorado. Mr Romney led in Florida.

The other states to watch include Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania, where Mr Romney has poured money into a late run.

The electoral college system and the way the state polls are going suggests that Mr Obama could be headed toward re-election partly due to his lead in Ohio, according to Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

Mr Romney called on New Hampshire voters to back him

A victory in US presidential elections relies not on a popular vote count but reaching 270 electoral college votes. They are allocated to each state based on population size.

Ms Clark said: "Obama only needs a couple of these swing states and the data suggests that he'll win one or two of them."

Mr Romney's advisers dismiss those polls and believe they have the momentum.

He said: "The same course we're on isn't going to lead to a better destination. The same course we're on is going to lead to $20bn in debt. Unless we change course, we also may be looking at another recession."

And speaking at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, he said: "Tomorrow is a moment to look into the future and imagine what we can do, to put that past four years behind us and build a new future.

"Walk with me. Tomorrow, we begin a new tomorrow."

The economy has been the key issue in the campaign and both candidates have been driving grassroots efforts to mobilise support.

Mr Romney told them:  "We have one job left, and that's to make sure that on election day, we make certain that everybody that's qualified to vote gets out to vote."

In the last few days, Mr Obama has been accompanied by stars including Bruce Springsteen and Jay-Z and with appearances from former president Bill Clinton.

While Mr Romney makes those extra stops in blue-collar districts, Mr Obama will spend the day in his home-town of Chicago. He has recorded a number of television and radio interviews which will air today.

Both campaigns have victory rallies lined up, in Chicago and at Romney HQ in Boston, and the candidates will address the nation once the results are known.

There have already been some allegations of irregularities at polling stations and if the numbers are close, recounts and absentee ballots could mean it is days before the result is known.

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Election: Final Push In Race To White House

Who Will Win The Presidency?

Updated: 12:54am UK, Monday 05 November 2012

By Adam Boulton, Political Editor

In predicting who is going to be the next US president, all we have to go on are the opinion polls - the rest comes down to hunches and conscious or unconscious prejudice.

What's more, opinion polls in America are particularly unreliable. Polling just a few thousand people in a country where around 140 million are expected to vote is a risky business.

In many polls the margin of error, typically plus or minus 3%, is much bigger than the arithmetical 'lead' enjoyed by the top candidate.

There are also differences in the representative sample used by the pollsters. For example, that venerable organisation Gallup seems consistently to favour the Republicans by as much as 6% more than its rivals in national opinion polls.

As things stand, national opinion polls are mostly a dead heat, when a margin of error is allowed for.

Mr Obama's popularity declined after his poor performance in the debate on October 3 and he has not recovered his big lead since then. But Mr Romney had no "momentum" by the beginning of November.

At the weekend, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) National Poll Average stood at 47.5% for Mr Obama and 47.3% for Mr Romney.

Mr Obama is clearly not on course to do as well as he did in 2008 against John McCain when he polled 52.9% of votes cast compared to 45.7% for the Republican.

Indeed conventional wisdom has now placed at least two of the states he won then - Indiana and North Carolina - firmly in the Republican column.

National opinion polls reflect the popular vote across the country, and winning that is not how you get to be president. You win the election by winning the vote state by state, thus stacking up the majority of the 538 electoral college votes.

It's perfectly possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. That's what Al Gore did against George W Bush in 2000. And it's what some Republicans fear Mr Romney may do this time.

So to work out who is going to sleep in the White House next January, you need to follow the state polls.

Working from this data America's leading analysts have come up with different snapshots of the state of the electoral race.

With 270 college votes needed to win, RCP allocates 201 to Mr Obama, 191 to Mr Romney and 146 votes in 11 states to play for.

Calling states on a solid and leaning basis, the Washington Post gives Mr Obama 243 electoral votes, Mr Romney 181, with 89 up for grabs in the toss up states - Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Nate Silver at the New York Times' controversial FiveThirtyEight blog makes a different probability-based analysis of the same polling data. 

He says there is now an 85.1% chance of Mr Obama being re-elected compared to just 14.9% that Mr Romney will become the 45th POTUS.  He calculates final electoral vote share at 306.9 for Mr Obama compared to 231.1 for Mr Romney.

You get a similar result if you apply the latest state polls to the toss-up states in the Washington Post and RCP models. With two days to go these state polls do not point to a dead heat - they suggest that Mr Obama is going to be re-elected.

In the latest polls from most of the swing states - Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia and above all Ohio - the President is ahead, not by much but consistently. He has also edged ahead in Florida, where he held his biggest rally on Sunday.

The Romney campaign shifted its focus to Pennsylvania at the weekend, in an attempt to suggest that more states than the usual suspects may be in play. But here and in Minnesota and Michigan, which the Republicans are also citing, the latest polls are also against them.

David Axelrod, Mr Obama's campaign chief, has promised to shave off his moustache if the President loses any of these three.

So why is there such confidence among Republicans that their man will win? Basically they say the opinion polls are wrong - and they point to surveys of early voting which show that Mr Obama's support amongst key voters is well down on 2008.

This argument, best articulated by George W Bush's old aide Karl Rove in the Wall St Journal, says the pollsters are over-representing democrats in their samples. On the ground they say Democrats are de-motivated to vote, while Republicans are fired up, and independents are breaking their way.

No wonder so many pundits are sitting on the fence, pointing out that this is a very close race according to the polls - with Mr Obama's edge in most circumstances in the margins of error.

Those who are making a guess, have to fall back on hunches and rules of thumb.

There are plenty of personal bellweathers to choose from.

No president since Franklin D Roosevelt has ever been re-elected with unemployment this high (although at 7.9% it is only a tenth of a per cent above the level where they have been returned).

At the start of the campaign, 25% of the electorate said the would never vote for a Mormon.

"As goes Ohio, so goes the nation" is pretty good but not infallible, but it is the case that no Republican has ever won without carrying what pundits insist on calling the Buckeye [i.e. Conker] State.

Then there are the lessons from recent history.

Incumbent presidents generally have some squatter's advantage. In modern times the only two incumbent presidents denied re-election have been George Bush senior and Jimmy Carter. But both had stronger negatives against them than Mr Obama.

Mr Bush's 1988 election pledge "read my lips no new taxes" was a demonstrable lie by 1992, while in 1980 Mr Carter was humiliated by  American hostages held in Iran and a disastrous military mission to rescue them.

In contrast, Mr Obama presided over the killing of Osama bin Laden, economic indicators are at last moving in the right direction, and he's enjoyed high approval and endorsement in the past week for his handling of Hurricane Sandy.

It's also the case that the more charismatic candidate tends to win the presidency. Mr Carter outshone Gerald Ford but was put in the shade by Ronald 'Morning in America' Reagan; the reserved George Walker Bush was no match for 'Slick Willy' Clinton.

This year, by common consent, Mr Obama has the star power although Mr Romney is making the best of his buttoned-up big businessman demeanour.

Fifty-one-year-old Mr Obama is playing the man of the people: most often open-necked, shouting till he is hoarse and allowing himself the occasional blunt epithet such as "bull****er" about his opponent.

A well-preserved 65-year-old Mr Romney presents more formally as a president in waiting, he's even had his campaign plane painted to look like Air Force One. He's less inclined to dive into the crowd and typically delivers more-in-sorrow-than-in-anger pep talks about the state of Mr Obama's nation. A bit like the harangues most managers subject their employees to these days.

There is also a clear choice between the two men's visions of America - although both claim they are the man to unite the country across the political divide.

Arguing "we are all in this together" Mr Obama argues that government has a role in directing the country, the rich he says, need to contribute more.

Mr Romney champions the private sector, volunteers and individuals. He argues that lower taxes, even for the better off, will benefit all.

So who do I think will win?

I think it's unlikely that all the polls are as wrong as they would have to be for a Republican victory.

I note that the Republicans are under-performing in their ambitions for the US Congress - unlikely to take control of the Senate and set to lose a few seats in the House.

It also seems to me that the Republican Party is a house divided against itself. With powerful voices on the right such as the Tea Party pulling it along way from the centrist ground which saw Mr Nixon, Mr Reagan and even the Bushes first elected. If Mr Romney is elected, I suspect that the internal rows are only just beginning. Swing voters don't like divided parties.

Shifts in the US population do not favour Republicans - if this was a 'whites only' election Mr Romney would be home and dry. But as the Republican Senator Linsey Graham quipped this summer: "We are not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

Disappointment yes, almost everywhere, but I don't detect widespread anger and contempt for Mr Obama. The mood seems more to press on in hard times. A mood which may well have been strengthened by the travails of Hurricane Sandy in this closing week.

So my guess is that the President will be re-elected taking Ohio and probably Florida. But it is only a guess, America has two credible leaders to take it forward.

But most of the real votes have not been cast yet in spite of early polling, and they won't be until Tuesday.

Paddy Power is already paying out on an Mr Obama victory. If you've got a bet on, my advice is to get down to the bookies ASAP.

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Delicate Diplomacy On Cameron Gulf Arms Tour

David Cameron has begun a three-day tour of the Gulf and Middle East in a bid to cement major UK arms sales and bolster relations with allies in the region.

The Prime Minister will personally spearhead a push to persuade the United Arab Emirates to buy 60 of BAE's Typhoon jets over French rivals in a deal reported to be worth upwards of £3bn.

On Tuesday, he will travel to Saudi Arabia - Britain's biggest trading partner in the region - which is also considering adding to its fleet of aircraft.

Downing Street said the visit - Mr Cameron's second to each country as premier - was part of a wider effort to build a "reinvigorated partnership" between Britain and the region's leaders.

Reinforced military ties are seen as crucial amid continued fears over Iran's nuclear ambitions and the threat Tehran could seek to badly disrupt oil supplies by blocking the Straits of Hormuz.

Mr Cameron will fly first to a military airbase near Dubai where a number of RAF Typhoons are stationed to promote the aircraft to military and political figures from the UAE.

He will also hold talks with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Prime Minister of the UAE on the potential for a joint work on the next generation of military aerospace equipment.

The Government hopes to secure deals for 100 Typhoons to be sold to the region in the coming year - worth at least £6bn to British firms.

Mr Cameron faces a tough balancing act, however, as he attempts to secure billions in investment from the oil-rich states while addressing concerns about the human rights records of their regimes.

The Arab Spring has led to an increased focus on largely autocratic rule in many states, including crackdowns on pro-democracy and other protest movements.

The Government has been criticised for failing to condemn abuses and accused of continuing to sell military equipment with insufficient guarantees it would not be used in repression.

But Saudi officials reacted angrily to an "insulting" inquiry into it by the Commons foreign affairs committee, warning it would be "re-evaluating" relations.

"We want to work together with the Gulf countries towards a future that is rich in prosperity, strong in defence and open in its handling and pursuit of political and economic reform," Downing Street said ahead of the visit.

On Wednesday, Mr Cameron will make a short visit to the Middle East before flying home for talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at Downing Street ahead of the crunch EU budget summit.

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Obama And Romney Hit Key US Swing States

The King Is Dead Long Live The King

Updated: 6:26pm UK, Saturday 03 November 2012

By Kay Burley, In Las Vegas

Elvis rocked the '60s with Viva Las Vegas. Almost half a century later and the two presidential candidates are hoping they can do the same.

Nevada is one of a handful of crucial swing states which will decide whether there's a new man at the White House or the present incumbent stays at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for four more years.

Such then is the importance of the Silver State to both candidates that the President broke off from visiting those worst affected by superstorm Sandy to make a flying visit to Vegas.

Mitt Romney has also spent much of his time in the desert gambling on being able to woo the locals.

Barack Obama is counting on the Latino, Hispanic and female vote. Mr Romney is hoping for some divine intervention with the support of fellow Mormons, who make up 10% of the vote in Nevada.

In fact, so deep is their faith, they put aside contempt for drinkers and gamblers and reluctantly attended a celebration party in a Vegas casino when their man won the party nomination here.

It was all so different four years ago. Back in 2008, Mr Obama found it easy to walk voters up the aisle of the little White Chapel where thousands of others tie the knot each year in Vegas.

He won the state convincingly with a 12-point margin. But did the President not pay his new companions enough attention? Could he be heading for a messy divorce in 2012?

The Obama campaign is spending a fortune on TV advertising to try to make sure they forget any indiscretions and give him another chance.

Vegas residents are bombarded with more political ads than any other viewers in the country. Apparently those watching the local news, Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune are particularly vulnerable to the TV appeals.

So what's the message? Well, the challenges of the economy have taken their toll on the USA and Nevada in particular. No longer are the streets paved with gold, certainly not for the residents at least.

If the issues this time are jobs and the economy then it should be easy for Mr Romney to convince the voters here to say "I do".

Nevada has the highest unemployment in the country (11.8% in September) and 60% of mortgages are underwater - negative equity - here, that's almost three times higher than the national average.

The city of northern Las Vegas has been described as the Ground Zero of the housing market. Foreclosure racked neighbourhoods sprawl way beyond the strip - and beneath it too.

More than 1000 people live in dirty, rat-infested underground flood tunnels way beneath Caesar's Palace and the Luxor casino hotels.

Disease and highly poisonous spiders are the major concern. Begging and "dumpster diving" for food is how they survive.

Many of those who call this home are former war veterans or those who came to Las Vegas in pursuit of the American dream.

Drink, drugs and depression are now their way of life. So, who do the residents of underground Vegas want to win on Tuesday?

I'll be finding out as I spend the next few days broadcasting for Sky News from Nevada.

But it's not just Vegas baby. There are another half a dozen swing states where the election can be won and lost.

My Sky News colleagues have fanned out from Washington to Florida, Ohio to Colorado to find out who the American people want to see victorious on Tuesday.

Using wireless digilinks we'll have correspondents strolling down mainstreet Des Moines and beach side Tampa. We'll be presenting across all the US time zones and have a pop up newsroom in Chicago.

Coverage starts in quite reserved Las Vegas with quite reserved me at 0600 Monday morning. Worth remembering that Nevada has backed the winning candidate in every election since 1976.

By early Wednesday morning UK time we should know who'll be King of Vegas and most probably the USA for the next four years.

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Sandy: Hypothermia Warning For Storm Victims

New York mayor Michael Bloomberg has warned residents of the risk of hypothermia as temperatures plunge in the wake of superstorm Sandy.

Temperatures are set to dip as low as 2C in the area, as some residents remain without gas for heating or electrical power.

Mr Bloomberg said the Long Island Power Authority (Lipa) had not acted aggressively enough to restore power to storm-hit residents in the region.

He said it was "unacceptable" that the worst-hit areas were not being made a priority for repairs after some residents were told it could take two weeks to restore power.

The Red Cross said it was stepping up its efforts in the face of a new storm, which is expected to bring cold winds, rain and possibly snow.

Charley Shimanski, senior vice president of disaster services, said: "We're working closely with emergency operations centres to stand up warming facilities, warming shelters, and stocking those with additional blankets, pillows and everything needed."

Electrical power has been restored to many residents

Mr Bloomberg's attack on the power company came just hours after US President Barack Obama showed reporters a photograph of a US Air Force transport plane being used to bring electrical utility cherry-picker trucks from other parts of the country to the damaged areas.

Mr Bloomberg also warned residents that fully resolving the shortages at petrol stations could take a few days.

Long lines of vehicles and pedestrians formed after governor Andrew Cuomo announced the US Department of Defence was opening mobile fuel stations in New York City and on suburban Long Island.

The government then asked the public to stay away from the locations until emergency responders get their fuel tanks filled.

But National Guard Colonel Richard Goldenberg said people who were already at the distribution sites would not be turned away.

Residents get into arguments over gasoline supplies

Energy companies have said they were working around the clock to restore power to parts of New York devastated by the powerful storm.

Engineers in Manhattan have managed to repair 11 power grids damaged by the high winds and storm surge.

But around 5,800 homes were still without electricity in Manhattan as of Saturday morning.

The worst-hit area of New York remains Queens - with 81,000 people still without power. Brooklyn and Staten Island both have 31,000 and the Bronx has 25,000 without electricity.

A statement from energy firm Con Edison said it had now restored power to 70% of customers - around 645,000 homes.

New Jersey governor Chris Christie stopped gas to the Barrier Islands

It said: "The hurricane is the worst natural disaster to strike Con Edison's customers in the company's history.

"Crews are facing thousands of downed wires in New York City and Westchester County.

"Some cannot be re-energised since they are in flood zones with damage that bars the safe re-introduction of electricity."

Some residents of New Jersey have been moved to tents set up by a utility company due to the length of time they are expected to be homeless due to the storm that hit the US East Coast last Monday.

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