Scotland Campaign Trail 'Sours', Says Darling

How Facebook Shaped The Referendum

Updated: 8:27am UK, Tuesday 16 September 2014

By James Matthews, Scotland Correspondent

It's Facebook 'wot might win it.

Sure, the August poll surge in support for independence was down, in part, to traditional campaigning. Meetings and megaphones have thrust the Yes campaign "in yer face" over years leading up to Thursday.

But why, according to the opinion polls, did it all seem to come together in the space of a few weeks? Why, suddenly, the knife-edge?

In the word of a senior Yes strategist: Facebook.

I chatted to him as the Alex Salmond Labour Heartland tour rolled up at its latest venue, playing to the target market through the TV cameras. It was a big, well-attended, photo-call - the staple diet of the political campaign.

As the strategist stood back from the madding crowd, he told me that the magic formula didn't lie in the blood and snotters of a mass media scrum, but in the quiet exploitation of social media. Facebook, in particular.

The challenge for supporters of Scottish independence, historically, has been in turning it from a fringe notion into something people allow themselves to contemplate. Check their election success at the Scottish Parliament to see the considerable style with which that's been accomplished.

Scots have taken the hop and a step. Why, now, might they be shaping to take the jump? 

The Yes strategist pinned it on Facebook.

"Ask yourself," he said, to paraphrase him, "if a parent wants to check on their youngster who's on a night out, what do they do?  They don't phone them, because they probably won't answer.

"They might text ... but, invariably, they'll Facebook them. And when they do, dozens or hundreds of their friends will see it. It's a chat network that plugs people into the other people they value. There are no better opinion-formers for someone than the friends and family they like and trust.

"So, as a campaigning tool, it's been very effective. We encourage Yes supporters to spread the word to their Facebook friends and, over time, you build a network around people that builds a political case.

"Facebook is more effective than Twitter. You put something on Twitter and you reach people within the political bubble. With Facebook, you tap into a far bigger community."

So why the spike in support for Yes after polls that had No with a consistent and strong lead over the course of a two and a half year campaign?

"People just didn't turn their mind to the referendum until it actually came round. It's been in the far distance for most of the campaign but, now that people realise they're getting to decision time, large numbers are now weighing up the arguments ... and they're deciding having had their views on independence softened by Facebook friends."

There were more than 10 million referendum-related interactions on Facebook in the five weeks to September 8 - 85% of which was from Scotland.

He said he reckoned the Yes campaign had been four or five times more active than their opponents on Facebook and pointed out a Facebook chat with Scotland's pro-independence First Minister Alex Salmond attracted around 5,000 questions.

Data suggests the Yes campaign is slightly in the lead with 2.05 interactions in Scotland compared to 1.96 million for the no campaign.

The strategist said the campaigning beauty of social media was that it eliminated the need to rely on mainstream media coverage, that the likes of Facebook cut out the middle man and enabled them to reach out to the voter directly.

Just how many the campaign has touched and what effect it has had, we'll find out soon enough.

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Westminster Leaders Pledge 'No' Vote Powers

How Facebook Shaped The Referendum

Updated: 8:27am UK, Tuesday 16 September 2014

By James Matthews, Scotland Correspondent

It's Facebook 'wot might win it.

Sure, the August poll surge in support for independence was down, in part, to traditional campaigning. Meetings and megaphones have thrust the Yes campaign "in yer face" over years leading up to Thursday.

But why, according to the opinion polls, did it all seem to come together in the space of a few weeks? Why, suddenly, the knife-edge?

In the word of a senior Yes strategist: Facebook.

I chatted to him as the Alex Salmond Labour Heartland tour rolled up at its latest venue, playing to the target market through the TV cameras. It was a big, well-attended, photo-call - the staple diet of the political campaign.

As the strategist stood back from the madding crowd, he told me that the magic formula didn't lie in the blood and snotters of a mass media scrum, but in the quiet exploitation of social media. Facebook, in particular.

The challenge for supporters of Scottish independence, historically, has been in turning it from a fringe notion into something people allow themselves to contemplate. Check their election success at the Scottish Parliament to see the considerable style with which that's been accomplished.

Scots have taken the hop and a step. Why, now, might they be shaping to take the jump? 

The Yes strategist pinned it on Facebook.

"Ask yourself," he said, to paraphrase him, "if a parent wants to check on their youngster who's on a night out, what do they do?  They don't phone them, because they probably won't answer.

"They might text ... but, invariably, they'll Facebook them. And when they do, dozens or hundreds of their friends will see it. It's a chat network that plugs people into the other people they value. There are no better opinion-formers for someone than the friends and family they like and trust.

"So, as a campaigning tool, it's been very effective. We encourage Yes supporters to spread the word to their Facebook friends and, over time, you build a network around people that builds a political case.

"Facebook is more effective than Twitter. You put something on Twitter and you reach people within the political bubble. With Facebook, you tap into a far bigger community."

So why the spike in support for Yes after polls that had No with a consistent and strong lead over the course of a two and a half year campaign?

"People just didn't turn their mind to the referendum until it actually came round. It's been in the far distance for most of the campaign but, now that people realise they're getting to decision time, large numbers are now weighing up the arguments ... and they're deciding having had their views on independence softened by Facebook friends."

There were more than 10 million referendum-related interactions on Facebook in the five weeks to September 8 - 85% of which was from Scotland.

He said he reckoned the Yes campaign had been four or five times more active than their opponents on Facebook and pointed out a Facebook chat with Scotland's pro-independence First Minister Alex Salmond attracted around 5,000 questions.

Data suggests the Yes campaign is slightly in the lead with 2.05 interactions in Scotland compared to 1.96 million for the no campaign.

The strategist said the campaigning beauty of social media was that it eliminated the need to rely on mainstream media coverage, that the likes of Facebook cut out the middle man and enabled them to reach out to the voter directly.

Just how many the campaign has touched and what effect it has had, we'll find out soon enough.

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Cameron Hardens Stance With Vow To Destroy IS

By Faisal Islam, Political Editor, in Downing Street

The message from Downing Street is one of resolve.

The Government will not be bounced into a change of strategy by the heinous public murder of a British aid worker.

The rhetoric, however, did harden somewhat.

The Prime Minister returned from Chequers to Downing St on Saturday night after the murder. He was referred to by name in the video distributed by IS.

He responded with a personal message. David Haines was a "British hero" who devoted his life to humanitarian aid, he said.

Mr Haines' killers, including the masked man with the British accent, "are not Muslims, they are monsters". He vowed that Britain would and could not "walk on by".

He hardened previous language about "squeezing ISIL out of existence" to a promise to "destroy ISIL with an iron determination".

This looked like a PM about to announce military action. Indeed the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has announced the deployment of 600 combat personnel and military aircraft to the UAE.

The direction of travel is pretty clear. But the actual strategy remains the same.

Mr Haines was kidnapped in Syria in 2013

There will be no emergency recall of Parliament, as suggested by some backbench MPs, including ex-Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt.

There will be no British combat "boots on the ground". Airstrikes are neither ruled in nor ruled out.

The limited lethal military aid, (some small quantity of heavy weaponry) given to the Kurdish peshmerga will continue.

Any ramping up of this will only be after the creation of a stable inclusive Iraqi government (which has started) and the establishment of a regional coalition.

As the PM told Sky News at the Nato summit, he is keen to show he has "learnt the lessons of the past".

The killer refers to Mr Cameron by name in the beheading video

That is a reference to the Iraq war in 2003. That involves a detailed, sustainable, diplomatic plan.

It is also fortuitous, because the PM can continue to avoid getting ahead of public and parliamentary opinion.

He is understandably burnt from the experience of the Syria vote a year ago. My assessment is that his Coalition, parliament, and the public, are getting on side.

The other brake on immediate action, of course, is US President Barack Obama. The White House put out a statement saying the US stood "shoulder to shoulder" with the UK.

The aim to "degrade and destroy" ISIL is clear. The assessment that a "Western intervention" alone is not a sustainable solution to this issue remains.

One key understated reason: that using superior western military might, is also a form of leverage for good behaviour from the new government in Iraq.

So the direction of travel remains clear. But we are still not yet at the point of the actual military engagement of a multinational coalition.

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Global Push To Combat IS After UK Beheading

International efforts to combat Islamic State militants have taken on added urgency after the beheading of a British aid worker and the threat to kill a second UK hostage.

The brutal murder of David Haines comes amid moves to form a broad coalition against the terror group which has grabbed large swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq.

Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond is attending a summit - spearheaded by French President Francois Hollande and Iraqi President Fuad Masum in Paris this morning - bringing together 30 countries to co-ordinate a response to the IS threat.

Prince Saud al Faisal, foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, and representatives of the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are among the delegates at the conference.

Ahead of the talks, Washington said several countries in the Middle East had offered to join airstrikes against the militants, while Australia said it would send aircraft and personnel and France announced it would begin reconnaissance missions over Iraq.

Mr Hammond and US Secretary Of State John Kerry arriving in Paris

Prime Minister David Cameron, who is under pressure to act following the killing of Mr Haines, has given no indication over whether he would commit military forces to airstrikes.

Video footage of the British aid worker's death showed a knife-wielding militant who speaks with a British accent.

The clip also included a threat to kill a second hostage, Alan Henning, who was a volunteer on an aid convoy.

It follows the beheadings of two American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff.

Mr Haines was taken hostage in Syria last year

Mr Cameron vowed to "hunt down" the "monsters" who killed Mr Haines, and said the crime would "strengthen our resolve" to smash the extremist network which has seized swathes of Iraq and Syria.

He said the UK would seek to "mobilise the broadest possible support to bear down" on IS at the United Nations.

"This is not about British combat troops on the ground, it is about working with others to extinguish this terrorist threat," he said.

"As this strategy intensifies we are ready to take whatever steps are necessary to deal with this threat and keep our country safe."

Mr Cameron has vowed to 'hunt down' the 'monsters' who killed Mr Haines

Although former military chiefs are among those pressing for the UK to join airstrikes, Downing Street has ruled out any immediate recall of Parliament.

Explaining Mr Cameron's dilemma, Sky's Chief Political Correspondent Jon Craig said: "He tried to get a vote in Parliament last year on missile strikes on Syria.

"Thirty or so Conservative MPs voted against, as did Labour, and he lost the vote. He was humiliated.

"So he doesn't particularly want to go down that route again."

A central part of the plan is to engage Arab countries in the coalition

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State John Kerry, who is also in Paris and has been touring the Middle East to rally support, told CBS: "We have countries in this region, countries outside of this region, in addition to the United States, all of whom are prepared to engage in military assistance, in actual strikes if that is what it requires."

However, Iraq's president has said it is "not necessary" for Arab powers to join airstrikes against Islamic State.

Iran has dismissed the conference as "just for show".

Deputy foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian told state television: "What would interest Iran is a real fight against terrorism in the region and around the world, not this selective one."

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Hostage David Haines' Murder 'Evil', PM Says

David Cameron has condemned the beheading of British aid worker David Haines by Islamic State, describing it as an "act of pure evil".

A video released by the militant organisation appears to show 44-year-old father of two Mr Haines being murdered.

In a statement put out by Downing Street, Mr Cameron says: "This is a despicable and appalling murder of an innocent aid worker. It is an act of pure evil.

"My heart goes out to the family of David Haines who have shown extraordinary courage and fortitude throughout this ordeal.

"We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers and ensure they face justice, however long it takes."

Mr Haines' brother Mike said his sibling was "just another bloke" who "helped whoever needed help" until he was murdered "in cold blood".

David Cameron returned to Downing Street with his head bowed

Mr Haines was thought to have been held captive by militant group Islamic State after being kidnapped from a Syrian refugee camp near the border with Turkey last year.

Mr Cameron has returned to Downing Street and will chair a Cobra meeting today at 10am with representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), the Ministry of Defence and the Home Office.

The release of the video came hours after Mr Haines' family urged his captors to contact them.

In the video, the victim looks into the camera and makes a statement, holding Mr Cameron responsible for his own "execution".

In the statement, which appears to have been made under duress, he said: "You entered voluntarily into a coalition with the United States against the Islamic State just as your predecessor Tony Blair did, following a trend against our British prime ministers who can't find the courage to say 'no' to the Americans.

"Unfortunately it is we the British public that in the end will pay the price for our Parliament's selfish decisions."

A man dressed in black addresses David Cameron in the video

A spokesperson from the FCO said: "All the signs are that the video is genuine. We have no reason to believe it is not."

The killing comes just weeks after American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff were beheaded by Islamic State (IS). Those deaths were also filmed, and the videos were released on the internet.

In the new video, a man dressed in black stood behind Mr Haines. The man seemed to speak with an English accent.

After Mr Haines finished his statement, the man said: "This British man has to pay the price for your promise, Cameron, to arm the peshmerga against the Islamic State.

"Your evil alliance with America which continues to strike the Muslims of Iraq and most recently bombed the Haditha Dam will only accelerate your destruction."

David Haines worked as an aid worker

"If you, Cameron, persist in fighting the Islamic State then you like your master Obama will have the blood of your people on your hands."

Another man who Sky News is not naming, said to be British, then appears at the end of the video and is threatened with being killed.

The Foreign Office said Mr Haines' family wished to be left alone.

US President Barack Obama has put out a statement saying: "Our hearts go out to the family of Mr Haines and to the people of the United Kingdom.

"The United States stands shoulder to shoulder tonight with our close friend and ally in grief and resolve."

France strongly condemned the murder and called for an international mobilisation to fight the Islamist group.

"The heinous murder of David Haines shows once again how the international community must mobilise against Daesh," the French presidency said in statement, referring to the Arabic acronym for IS.

The murders have prompted a number of commentators to call for swift and firm action. Former head of the Army Lord Dannatt said the UK should respond by playing its role in the assault against IS promised by Mr Obama.

"What we absolutely need to do is not be cowed in any way by yet another foul murder of a hostage," he said.

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IS Threat To Cameron Likely To Stiffen Resolve

By Mark White, Home Affairs Correspondent

The murder of British hostage David Haines follows a now all too familiar, horrific pattern.

He is the third Western hostage beheaded by the terror group Islamic State in recent weeks, with the killing recorded and posted online.

It was billed as "A Message To The Allies of America" - effectively a direct challenge to Prime Minister David Cameron and the UK Government's support for action against IS militants in the region.

In the video, a masked man, dressed in black, makes a statement to camera before appearing to kill his hostage.

Speaking in a British accent, the militant said: "This British man has to pay the price for your promise, Cameron, to arm the peshmerga against the Islamic State.

"Your evil alliance with America which continues to strike the Muslims of Iraq and most recently bombed the Haditha Dam, will only accelerate your destruction, and playing the role of the obedient lapdog Cameron will only drag you and your people into another bloody and unwinnable war."

This man addresses David Cameron in the video

Islamic State is as 21st Century techno-savvy as it is medieval in its barbarism.

The group has a well-established network of online supporters, who are quick to disseminate its gruesome videos and spread its propaganda.

There is no doubt the terror group is smarting from the US airstrikes designed to degrade and dismantle its Iraq-based fighters.

James Foley, the first of the Western hostages murdered, was apparently killed by the group last month as a direct response to those airstrikes.

The death two weeks later of fellow US journalist Steven Sotloff only served to stiffen America's resolve, with President Barack Obama vowing to take the fight to Islamic State, not just in Iraq but in Syria too.

Now the latest bid to pressure the UK's political leaders to stop their support for the fight against the group will also fail.

David Haines was understood to have been taken hostage in Syria

Moreover, as with the deaths of the two Americans, it will only galvanise the UK's determination to tackle the IS threat more robustly.

Indeed, David Cameron issued a statement which warned: "We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers and ensure they face justice, however long it takes."

Mixed with the mourning and the tributes in the days ahead, there will also be many calls for tougher action by the UK Government and calls to join America in the air war - calls Mr Cameron will find it increasingly difficult to resist.

Any increased military effort will run alongside an expanding criminal investigation by the police and security services back in the UK.

Following the death of James Foley, Scotland Yard said it was making "significant progress" in efforts to identify the man responsible.

Believed to be British, voice analysts say he has a distinctive multi-cultural London accent.

Initial analysis of the latest video would appear to show the same British jihadi involved in David Haines' murder, speaking with the same London accent, the same height and build, and carrying a combat knife in his left hand.

The security services almost certainly already know who he is, but bringing him to justice is likely to be a very protracted affair.

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Scotland's Gender Divide Over Independence

How Yes Vote Would Change Scotland

Updated: 4:05am UK, Wednesday 29 January 2014

By Niall Paterson, Sky News Correspondent

Anyone who tells you they know with certainty what will happen in the advent of a 'Yes' vote is at best being disingenuous, at worst lying through their teeth.

Plenty of questions simply cannot be answered until the voters decide to make Scotland an independent nation.

Of course, a degree of informed speculation is taking place across the UK - so with the above in mind, here's what Scotland might gain or lose after the referendum on Thursday, September 18:

:: SCOTLAND GAINS: A NATIONAL ANTHEM

Officially, Scotland doesn't have one. Then again, neither does England. God Save The Queen is the British anthem, although it was long ago purloined by those south of Gretna Green, and sung with lusty glee at Twickenham and Wembley. Flower Of Scotland, by beardy Scottish folk heroes The Corries, was adopted by the Scottish rugby team back when they won things and is a strong contender, although references to sending the English home again might be considered a bit thirteenth century. A new anthem might well be commissioned, but having watched Eurovision over the past few years, few would bet on it being any good.

:: SCOTLAND LOSES: THE BBC

Nope, this isn't just a chance for me to lay into Auntie. Again. Obviously the BBC would retain a presence north of the border and Eastenders isn't going anywhere (unfortunately) but Alex Salmond has proposed a Scottish Broadcasting Service, a joint venture with the Beeb. It would initially be set up using BBC Scotland's facilities and staff, although one wonders what they would think of that. The SNP says it would have an annual budget of £345m, which would mean doubling the amount spend on public service broadcasting in Scotland. River City (Google it, Englanders) will continue ... to annoy me.

:: SCOTLAND GAINS: A PASSPORT AND BORDERS

Well, there will certainly be a Scottish passport after a 'Yes' vote, and borders seem increasingly likely. Theresa May has said there would need to be improved checks as the SNP intends to pursue a more liberal immigration policy. Any government would be able to do that, in fact, so some form of control would appear a necessity. Goodbye to the "Welcome to England" sign, hello annoying spot checks and cavity searches.

:: SCOTLAND LOSES: MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU

For now at least. No one really expects an independent Scotland wouldn't ultimately gain EU membership, but it might be a rather time-consuming process given the other member states would have to agree - and there are a few with their own issues around self-determination (see Spain and Catalonia) that might wish to make it rather difficult.

:: SCOTLAND GAINS: ITS OWN ARMED FORCES

As with the BBC, Alex Salmond seems intent on a bit of a land grab (don't worry, people of Durham, not literally), and there has been the suggestion that forces based in Scotland could switch allegiances. Defence secretary Philip Hammond says that is "laughable". In any event, the plan is to have a Scottish Defence Force, with a standing army of as many as 12,500 troops, close working relations with Scandinavian countries and between 20 and 25 ships. No word yet on whether any of those will be called Dignity.

:: SCOTLAND LOSES: TRIDENT

A biggie, this. Growing up not terribly far from the nuclear submarine base at Faslane, I was blissfully unaware of the Russian warheads targeting the UK's deterrent. And, whether true or not, the view lingers that it whilst it makes strategic sense to put the subs as far away from Westminster as possible, it's rather unfair, particularly given a strong historic opposition in Scotland to nuclear weapons. The problem is the SNP have only latterly recognised that Nato membership is important to Scotland's international standing - and it is, of course, a nuclear alliance.

:: SCOTLAND (POSSIBLY) GAINS: NORTH SEA OIL

Bit tricky, this one. At stake, there's as much as 24 billion barrels of oil and gas worth £1.5 trillion waiting to be extracted - and HM Treasury's coffers aren't exactly overflowing at the moment. Geographically, Scotland could claim up to 90% of this and one could argue the UK's position on the Falklands strengthens the SNP case. But the Government in Westminster could also argue it should be recompensed for decades of infrastructure investment. Frankly, I don't know. Sorry. Told you this was going to be difficult.

:: SCOTLAND (POSSIBLY) LOSES: THE POUND

Undoubtedly there will be a currency used in Scotland called the pound. The question is, whether or not it continues to be backed by the Bank of England. It would essentially mean a currency union between an independent Scotland and the remainder of the UK - and whilst the First Minister thinks it's an absolutely smashing idea, funnily enough that's not a view shared by, for example, the Chancellor nor the Governor of the Bank of England. True, a separate currency would make trading between the nations that bit more difficult, and that's got to be a factor when the recovery is so fragile. But the Governor, Mark Carney, is fond of pointing to the Eurozone crisis. One thing's certain - those funny-coloured banknotes so loved by London taxi drivers aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Which is a good thing. No trip to London is complete without a wizened driver turning up his nose at your purple twenty quid note.

So, in short, we don't really know. And we will only get to know in the passage of time after a 'Yes' majority in the referendum.

Some will vote with their heart, some with their head.

Some won't vote at all - and with so many unanswerables, who can blame them?

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